Reportedly, on Tuesday 15 December 2009 a dozen or so experts were invited by the Office of the U.S. Director of National Intelligence to review four “scenarios” (see chart above, and summarised below) for the Quadrennial Intelligence Community Review (QICR) 2009. The scenarios, based on the National Intelligence Council (NIC) Global Trends 2025 study issued in November 2008 [pdf], provide a rare glimpse into the anxieties of the American intelligence community that drive the actions of the U.S. military and diplomatic establishment, which the world suffers.

In a nutshell, the QICR-Scenarios document [pdf] recognises that in the near future (to 2025) “America will be globally preeminent, yet its relative power will decline” and is convinced that “multiple unpredictable and complex threats [from state and non-state actors] will characterize the security environment facing the U.S.” More specifically, it identifies the following four threats that should guide the labours of the U.S. intelligence community:

1. World Without the West: In 2025, Russia, China, India, and Iran join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) — hopefully, this is just sloppy drafting and the authors do know that China and Russia are founding members of SCO — to challenge American capitalist ideology and “U.S. economic, military, and technological supremacy.”
2. BRIC’s Bust-Up: Energy and resource shortages cause a slowdown of growth in Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC), leading to beggar-my-neighbour policies, ushering “a 21st-century replay of the years before 1914″ — it is unclear whether the authors of the draft intend to suggest a replay of the expansion of colonisation of most of the globe.
3. October Surprise: An aggressive focus on growth, efficient markets, and robust trade eventually causes financial volatility, and other ills including a climate disaster, a hurricane striking Manhattan with little warning (the “October Surprise”) exposing the dangers of success.
4. Politics is Not Always Local: Power shifts from nation-states to non-state actors creating a chaotic political environment.

These dire contingencies — (i) what if BRIC and Iran join up? (ii) what if they fall apart? (iii) what if capitalism succeeds? (iv) what if it, and the nation-state, fail?— are truly remarkable in their banality. The document devotes a separate section to each of these scenarios; each section starts with a summary statement of the scenario, which in its own words is reproduced below:

1. “WORLD WITHOUT THE WEST

In 2025, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) expands to include Russia, China, India, and Iran, creating a fragile new coalition. Antagonism toward Western protectionism and complementary interests drives this coalition. Although the U.S. and its European allies remain an important counterweight, the world focuses on the dynamic of this new coalition, hence a “World Without the West.” Framing their cooperation as a new counterbalance to “Washington Consensus” economics and American military preeminence, these countries leverage their vast energy reserves, huge populations, and high level of technological development to challenge U.S. economic, military, and technological supremacy.

Although this alignment is generally acknowledged as a “marriage of convenience” and does not always encourage direct competition with Western institutions, it increasingly offers pathways for the SCO countries and their allies to circumvent the West’s traditional influence in politics and economics. America and Europe maintain strong ties built on mutual affinity, but trans-Pacific relations are chilly. As states seek energy security and strengthened spheres of influence, the result is confrontations in familiar and new venues, often carried out through proxies. The United Nations (UN) and other international institutions slowly fade in importance, giving fierce inter-state competition and the widening rift between the two sides.”

2. “BRIC’S BUST-UP

In 2025, a series of energy and resource shortages, particularly acute in Asia, disrupt what had promised to be a steady period of growth led by the BRIC countries. Governments around the world take a zero-sum attitude to international affairs and retreat from free trade commitments, adopting mercantilist economic policies defined by assertive protectionism. Economic growth slows as states champion domestic technology initiatives and national conglomerates. These actions constrain the flow of goods, capital, and information across borders. Intense energy competition and transient shifting alliances lead to a rise in local skirmishes and an escalating threat of interstate war. This lack of international cohesion allows nuclear weapons to proliferate in Asia and the Middle East, leading to a precarious balance of mutually deterrent powers that in some ways resembles a 21st-century replay of the years before 1914.”

3. “OCTOBER SURPRISE

In the 2025 world called October Surprise, governments and global elites pursue short-term economic gain above all else. Their aggressive focus on growth, efficient markets, and robust trade eventually causes financial volatility as a result of poorly organized, uncoordinated responses to crises in global health, environmental change, and other international issues. The global economic system appears robust and successfully promotes prosperity, but this type of
goods, human rights violations, and a widening gap between rich and poor. Health and environmental disasters—some sudden and others slow-burning—frequently overwhelm domestic agencies, which are increasingly understaffed. Climate change becomes an acute concern, exacerbating resource scarcities and damaging coastal urban centers. One such climate disaster, a hurricane striking Manhattan with little warning (the “October Surprise”) during a major world conference, demonstrates the danger posed by this world.”

4. “POLITICS IS NOT ALWAYS LOCAL

By 2025 a subtle but unmistakable power shift has enabled identity-centric groups to gradually supplant the authority of traditional nation states. The rapid diffusion of mobile phones and Internet connectivity enables much of the world’s population to join networks that transcend national borders, giving voice to latent desires for affiliation based on religion, ethnicity, class, ideology, and other elements of self-definition. National leaders frequently find their authority challenged in a variety of indirect ways: megacities forge their own policies and partnerships, a multitude of social and political movements lobby for change, and ideologically motivated groups cause violent disruptions. Peace and prosperity are far from universal as a rapidly changing cast of these non-state a chaotic political environment.”

Based on: Danger! Spyboy Conference