The Threat Perceptions of a Paranoid Hyperpower

U.S. Admiral Dennis Blair, DNI

Admiral Dennis C. Blair, U.S. Director of National Intelligence, presented the Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community [pdf] to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence on 2 February 2010. The public proceedings are available as a video (at the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence website).

This post reproduces excerpts from the Annual Threat Assessment relating to countries that America’s Intelligence Coomunity seems to see as their friends, competitors, and enemies. In the country excerpts, the top headings are the section headings under which the excerpt appears (Iran is discussed under two hedings; “…” indicates missing text). All graphics have been added.

Excerpts from the Assessment:
Unseen (Mother of All) Threats: Israel | India
Potential Threats: Russia | China | North Korea
Current Threats: Afghanistan | Pakistan | Iraq
Emerging Threats: Iran | Yemen | Somalia | Sudan | Nigeria
Future Threats: Venezuela | Cuba

Senate Select Committee on Intelligence

US INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY
ANNUAL THREAT ASSESSMENT

STATEMENT FOR THE RECORD

Chairman Feinstein, Vice Chairman Bond, Members of the Committee, thank you for the invitation to offer the Intelligence Community’s assessment of threats to US national security. I am pleased to be accompanied today by the Directors of the Central Intelligence Agency, Defense Intelligence Agency, Federal Bureau of Investigation, and the Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence and Research.

The strategic landscape has changed considerably for US interests over the past year. We see some improvements, but also several entrenched problems and slow progress in some areas for the foreseeable future. Several large-scale threats to fundamental US interests will require increased attention, and it is on one of these threats that I will focus our initial discussion.

Admiral Blair went on to address three global threats (not specific to any region or country) under the following headings:

• Far-Reaching Impact of the Cyber Threat
• The Changing Threat to the Global Economy
• Terrorists Under Pressure; Terrorist Threat to Homeland Remains

The remaing assessment was more concerned with individual countries and regions—from which this post presents extensive excerpts for selected countries—under the following headings:

• The Growing Proliferation Threat
• Afghanistan
• Pakistan: Turning Against Domestic Extremists
• India
• Mixed Outlook Middle East
• China’s Continuing Transformation
• Outlook for Russia
• Latin America Stable, but Challenged by Crime and Populism
• Continued Instability in Africa
• Mass Killings
• Potential Flashpoints in Eurasia and Balkans
• Regional Impacts of Climate Change
• Strategic Health Challenges and Threats
• Significant State and Non-State Intelligence Threats
• Growing Threat from International Organized Crime
• Conclusion [reproduced below]

Conclusion

A year ago the deteriorating global economy threatened to trigger widespread political instability. I am happy to report that, while the recovery remains tenuous, the past economic clouds darkening the whole strategic outlook have partially lifted. Despite the myriad uncertainties and continuing challenges, the economic and political picture we are facing today could have been far worse if the economic free fall had not been stopped. As I indicated last year, the international security environment is complex. No dominant adversary faces the United States that threatens our existence with military force. Rather, the complexity of the issues and multiplicity of actors—both state and non state—increasingly constitutes one of our biggest challenges. We in the Intelligence Community are seeking to understand and master the complexity and interlocking ties between issues and actors and in doing so believe we can help protect vital US interests in close cooperation with other civilian and military members of the US Government.

The rest of this post reproduces excerpts on selected countries.

Jump to:
Afghanistan | China | Cuba | India | Iran | Iraq | Israel | Nigeria
North Korea | Pakistan | Russia | Somalia | Sudan | Venezuela | Yemen