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Continued Instability in Africa

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Nigeria: Serious Challenges Remain

Supporters of President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua's second term ambitions (L-R), former President, and People Democratic Party (PDP) Chairman, Chief Vincent Ogbulafor, retired Nigerian Army general and former President Mathew Obasanjo, oppose Attorney General and Minister of Justice Michael Kaase Aondoakaa, who has been chosen to be the Director-General of the campaign team.

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country and a major oil and gas producer and home to as many as 70 million moderate Muslims will continue to face serious social, economic, and security challenges over the next year. Many important electoral and governmental reforms have stalled as Nigeria’s political elites politick, buy support, pursue personal gain, and jockey for position ahead of the next national elections scheduled for 2011. Many observers fear communal conflict and political violence will increase in the run-up to these elections, which could lead to a deeply flawed poll. As the Niger Delta amnesty agreement between the government and militants continues to be stalled, we worry that criminality and conflict in the restive region will resume in the medium term, complicating US efforts to engage on security and energy issues. Communal violence probably will continue to outbreak suddenly, with little or no warning, especially in parts of the northern and central regions of the country where ethno-religious tensions remain high.

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