Taking Israel’s threat seriously, Iran had declared its intention to block the Gulf oil transit lanes in retaliation. In a major shift in foreign policy, France has not only entered the New Great Game, as it is being called, by establishing a military presence in the Middle East, but has increased the cost of retaliation to Iran. See the story in Le Monde (rough translation below; see also The Sunday Times: Link; The New York Times: Link; and Real Clear World: Link).

France strengthens its commitment in the Gulf
LE MONDE | 27.05.09 | 16h24 • Updated 27.05.09 | 16h24

Abu Dhabi, Special Correspondent

Having opened in Abu Dhabi, in sweltering heat, the first French military base in the Middle East, Nicolas Sarkozy delivered on Tuesday May 26, a speech framing the strategic shift signalled [imprimé] by his diplomacy, as tensions build up around Iran and its nuclear programme.

To defuse critics who see in this choice the adoption of a posture of going to war, the French president has assured that this “permanent military presence of France is not aimed at anyone.” “France is looking everywhere to pursue peaceful and diplomatic solutions,” he emphasised.

The military base, with a strong naval component, wil accommodate approximately 500 French troops. “It simply reflects the long-term commitment of France to stand beside her friends: whatever they may confront, we would be at their side,” said the Head of State.

The first bilateral defense agreement with the United Arab Emirates in 1995 was followed by the establishment of a “strategic partnership”. For a long time, French military ships have beencalling at Abu Dhabi, and joint military exercises are held regularly.

France has had relations with the Emirates, the holders of the fifth largest world reserves of oil, for a long time, with the presence of the firm Total, and with weapons contracts. But Mr Sarkozy has introduced two new features. On the one hand, the permanent nature of a military base, which, he explained, “illustrates the responsibilities that France, as global power, intends to shoulder with its partners, in a sensitive region of the world” .

On the other hand, since January 2008, the launch of cooperation in civilian nuclear deal is the most concrete tie with a Muslim state, since the start of the presidency of Mr. Sarkozy. The Head of State had brandished offers of export of this French technology as a message to Iran. In essence: everything is possible, when the standards of non-proliferation are observed.

“ASYMMETRIC WARFARE”

In Abu Dhabi, even if Iran was not mentioned once in public by the French president, it is the regional ambitions of the Islamic Republic that are very distressing for the Arab Gulf and Israel, and which concentrate their attention.

The Emirates (a federation of 6.4 million people near the Straits of Hormuz, through which 40% of world oil transits) are trying to diversify their external guarantees of security against Iran. By becoming established in the Gulf, the French army joins the Western military operations in the region, dominated by the United States.

The fear is rife of a serious escalation of tensions in the region where Iran is strengthening its military potential. The powerful body of the Revolutionary Guards is responsible, since September 2008, for the defend the the Gulf coast. Western experts take the “asymmetric warfare” capacity of the Pasdaran, which could take the form of placing barriers to maritime traffic (floating mines) or of attacks against ships and oil infrastructure.

Mr Sarkozy announced that under the new defense agreement signed Tuesday with the Emirates of “specific and appropriate responses, including military,” will be decided jointly “where the security, sovereignty, territorial integrity and the independence of the United Arab Emirates are affected. ”

The first French military establishment abroad outside Africa, the base of Abu Dhabi is a fulcrum for French vessels operating between the Gulf and the Indian Ocean, along the “strategic axis” identified since 2008 as a priority for action outside France. It will provide a useful post for intelligence [un poste utile pour le renseignement], near the epicenter of tension in the Middle East. But still modest in numbers and equipment, compared to that of Djibouti, where 3,000 French soldiers are stationed. And its position in the west of the Strait of Hormuz, in a maritime “cul de sac”, limits a priori its importance for French military engagement in Afghanistan.

“Five hundred soldiers will not change the strategic balance in the Gulf”, said an Emirates official to us, according to whom the Abu Dhabi base, primarily intended to accompany the sale of armaments, was already foreseen in the defense agreement of 1995, which was never made public. That of 2009 will be announced at the Elysee, but after the ratification process.

Natalie Nougayrède
Article appeared in the edition of 28.05.09.